Paskewitz contrarian investing

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So I was able to program and test trading models. After three years at Banque Indosuez I moved to Lehman Brothers, where I led a project with the goal to apply advanced machine learning methods to forecast futures market movements. This used artificial intelligence and was cutting edge at that time. OFI: What is your approach? BP: It is a contrarian strategy. The basic idea is that the market is ready to reverse course after going in one direction for a time.

After the market rises, our models will move to sell; after the markets goes down, we'll buy. Essentially our models predict tops or bottoms. OFI: So you're not a trend follower? BP: The logic of our strategy is the exact opposite of trend following. OFI: What's the time frame for your contrarian approach? BP: Our models have been good at forecasting on a short-term basis. The trades average six trading days but can be as short as one day or as long as three weeks.

OFI: Is there a discretionary component? BP: No, it is purely systematic. We take a strictly quantitative approach to all aspects of trading, from selecting the strategy to risk control. We've never had to override signals. OFI: You say you use more than one model. Are they all contrarian? BP: We use three contrarian models, which look for different patterns in market data.

These are weighted equally in the portfolio. They're like three traders looking at market behavior from different angles to determine tops and bottoms. OFI: Does the strategy work with other instruments? BP: It works in some markets, not all.

But it works well with most stock indexes around the world as well as individual equities and other select markets. We have been developing a separate program, expected to launch in month or two, that will trade other markets and models.

These are all liquid futures markets. OFI: Trend followers lost money in How did contrarianism work out? BP: was a relatively tough year for us as well, in the sense that we did significantly worse than in previous years. We forecast short-term tops and bottoms, but the market had very long streaks going up for extended periods some days.

Based on history, our models signaled that the market was likely to turn down.