2007 patriots point differential betting

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Jackson missed most of the season with his knee injury, and he ended up catching only one more pass in the NFL. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels left the Patriots after the season to coach the Broncos, but he returned in The Patriots' core consisted almost entirely of players Belichick had inherited or drafted.

Rodney Harrison, signed from San Diego, was a cap casualty. Junior Seau was a limited version of his former self. The best example of Belichick's shopping in the bargain bin was the second-round pick he had traded for Corey Dillon, who ran for 1, yards in his debut season before hitting the age wall. Wide receiver had eluded Belichick, however. Free-agent additions such as Donald Hayes hadn't moved the needle.

Brady had claimed three Super Bowls despite completing passes in those wins to a group of wide receivers that included exactly one player -- Branch -- drafted before the seventh round. There was also the question of whether Brady could raise his game to another level. Nobody doubted that Brady was a great player, of course, but the debate between him and Manning had devolved into an inane discussion of whether you preferred winning Brady or statistical production Manning.

Brady had been brilliant during the postseason, but his regular-season production wasn't that of a superstar quarterback. Brady led the league in touchdown passes in and in passing yardage three years later, but the Michigan product hadn't come close to a signature season. Brady had ranked ninth or 10th in passer rating four times in five seasons between and , finishing sixth in Brady was a great player, but after he finally vanquished the Patriots signal-caller and won his first Super Bowl after the season, Manning had a stronger case as the best quarterback in football.

All of that was about to change. The shopping spree Just three of Brady's top nine receivers from the season -- Watson, Maroney and the seemingly ageless Kevin Faulk -- caught passes from the future Hall of Famer in Gaffney, signed to a bargain-basement two-year deal, saw his role expand after he impressed with a pair of yard games during the playoffs. Otherwise, Brady threw passes in to players who weren't on the roster. The Pats made minor acquisitions to replace departing veterans, bringing in longtime Belichick object of desire Kyle Brady as a replacement for Graham and signing Sammy Morris to fill in for the released Dillon.

Morris had been a backup for the Dolphins and carried the ball just 92 times in , but he racked up 85 carries in six games before going down with a season-ending clavicle injury. Another Dolphins backup played a much larger role in the season. Wes Welker was an undrafted free agent who had spent three seasons with the Dolphins as a returner and occasional slot receiver. During the season, Welker's role expanded greatly, but he started only two games while catching 67 passes for yards and a lone touchdown.

He remained an ancillary target behind the likes of Marty Booker and Chris Chambers, the latter of whom suggested that the Dolphins should use their first-round pick on Ohio state wideout Ted Ginn by noting, "Our return game, which is nonexistent since I've been here for the most part, could use a boost.

Before officially submitting the paperwork, though, the Patriots agreed to throw in an additional seventh-round pick to acquire Welker's rights via trade, which left them with two advantages. The Dolphins, who saw Welker as a third receiver not worth starting money , took the deal and drafted Ginn in the first round. He lasted three seasons in Miami. Obviously, the Dolphins look foolish in hindsight for letting Welker leave, but it wasn't as if Welker was seen as a superstar at the time.

Dan Le Batard, writing for The Miami Herald, couldn't believe that Welker cost more via trade than Marshall Faulk cost the Rams and told a story about Welker's next-door neighbor refusing to believe that Welker played for the Dolphins. When the 5-foot-9 Welker showed him proof, the neighbor responded by saying, "No wonder we were With Welker and Stallworth on board, the Patriots could credibly say they had upgraded their receiving corps, but they weren't finished. The biggest prize, though, nearly slipped away before the Patriots could make their move.

Randy Moss was damaged goods after two disastrous seasons in Oakland. He had racked up a total of just 1, receiving yards and 11 touchdowns in his two seasons by the Bay, a relative pittance for a player who had 1, yards and 17 touchdowns during his last healthy season with the Vikings in Moss' reputation was in tatters heading into the offseason , and while writers who weren't exactly diving into Raiders game tape were suggesting that Moss had lost a step or two, two teams seemed particularly interested in acquiring Moss.

One was the Green Bay Packers , whose fans Moss had pantomimed mooning in That this was a response to Green Bay fans' actually mooning Moss and the opposing teams was left unsaid at the time. Rumors linked Moss to the Packers throughout February and March, and the player who was reportedly heading to Oakland in return for Moss ended up piecing together a decent career for himself.

Both Pro Football Talk and Michael Felger of the Boston Herald suggested that the Packers were ready to swap then-backup quarterback Aaron Rodgers as part of a deal for Moss, with Felger suggesting on March 15 that the trade was "on the verge of being announced. Moss went to Boca Raton and worked his way back an hour north of the Dolphins in Miami, with his agent publicly suggesting that Moss ran a 4.

Although plenty of representatives will suggest their star players are in the best shape of their lives, the Patriots were listening. On the second day of the draft, new Raiders coach Lane Kiffin was desperate enough to make his move. Everyone was on board. Now, the Patriots just had to make it all work. The offense on the field As much as history might suggest that everything clicked from Day 1 for New England's new additions, August was a turbulent month.

Moss went down with a hamstring injury that cost him virtually all of training camp, and by the end of the month, things appeared to have hit a breaking point. As late as Sept. The future Hall of Famer eventually made the roster, stole Bam Childress' Brady-adjacent locker and made it to Week 1 with hamstrings intact. Brady racked up yards by halftime against the Jets, 87 of them going to Moss, but the season to come announced itself during the third quarter.

With the Patriots up , Brady launched a yard touchdown pass to Moss , who accelerated past three Jets defenders while the ball was in the air for the score. Brady told ESPN's Seth Wickersham that he overthrew the pass and assumed it was an incompletion until he heard the crowd roar for a catch.

By Monday of the following week, the Patriots were embroiled in the Spygate scandal , which would both loom over the team and arguably inspire it to greater heights. I'll write more about that and its long-term effects later in the week; in this piece, I'm going to focus on what happened on the field with New England. The Cowboys gave the Patriots their first scare in New England won its first eight games by a combined points.

Its win expectancy didn't fall below 50 percent at any single moment until Week 6 of the season, when the Dallas Cowboys took a third quarter lead at home. New England promptly outscored them the rest of the way. The Patriots weren't in any real danger until Week 9 against the Colts, when Indy led and had a 95 percent win expectancy with 9 minutes, 35 seconds to go in the fourth quarter.

Statistically, the Patriots were an absolute juggernaut. They posted the best point differential in league history over their first 10 games by a whopping 59 points. Who does that? Moss caught nine passes for yards and a touchdown. And then … Ellis Hobbs cornerback : Against the Jets, I broke the return record [a yard kickoff return for a touchdown]. Reporters come over, and I thought they were going to talk about the kickoff return. First question was, "What is this about you guys cheating?

Right after the Week 1 victory over the Jets, Bill Belichick called a meeting to explain Spygate to the team. Many veteran players were furious. Did we do anything that anyone else hasn't done? But we never went against the rules. I don't want anyone talking about it in the media. A lot of the veterans were pissed. Tedy Bruschi was pissed.

Mike Vrabel was pissed, visibly. Rodney -- he said something to the papers, because he could say whatever he wanted. Tommy [Brady] was upset but he never showed it. Other NFL players and media were saying that they didn't earn those championships. Watson: [Belichick] asked if anyone had questions. Nobody said anything. Brady: As players, we're like, what are you talking about?

We're not even privy to what goes on. Hobbs: It kind of came out, then it disappeared. It was elephant in the room but the elephant was invisible. Bill did such a good job of keeping us focused, or keeping us distracted.

One day, Bill said, "A lot of you guys have paid your debts. Your family is suffering. Parents are suffering. Bodies are suffering. Wanna know what cures it? Winning cures everything. You gotta deal with that whole situation, but as players, it was bulls None of the players knew what was going on. We played the game. We just wanted to say "F you" to everyone. Brady threw 30 touchdown passes in the first eight games, eclipsing his previous career high for an entire season.

Stallworth: There was a play that we put in before the Cowboys game. I wasn't percent on it. We weren't percent on it that week. We were 90 percent on it, but that's not good enough. I remember holding back -- should I ask Tom about it? The play wasn't designed for me; it was designed for Randy. Well, I figured, it's going to go to Randy. So I never asked him. We're in the fourth quarter of the Dallas game.

They call that play and they call it to me. Oh, s! I could tell that Tom wasn't percent, because I stopped out of the huddle and looked at him and he grabbed me. We're both like, we're not on the same page. The play was designed for me to do three different routes against three different coverages.

And so I asked him, "What do you want me to do? After that play, I came to sidelines, we looked at each other and started laughing. The team developed a reputation for running up the score. We didn't care. With Spygate, we had to over-satisfy. Brady was as pumped-up on the sideline as if it were a comeback win. Not everybody liked New England's bloodthirsty ethic. Belichick began to take heat for running up points on teams. Hobbs: Bill just said, "Every time we step on the field, prove you're the best.

There is no sportsmanship. We're going to keep putting points on the board. Colvin: People thought Bill was giving Tom all the answers. So it was a matter of, we're not just going to stick it to you, we're going to stick it to you a little more than we usually have.

We're going to prove a point, and prove it hard. Brady: When we won Super Bowls, we were a defensive football team. Our offense was average most of the time. And it was a nice feeling. Tom Brady Sr. Week 7: Patriots 49, Dolphins 28 Stallworth: Thursday before the Dolphins, we didn't practice because a few of the guys were hurt.

Bill said to us, "The most important thing is the health of our team. Bill brings us up and says, "I'm sick of this s Brady, Rodney, this is your team. I'm not looking at this anymore. I'm going in. OK, we had a bad practice. This happens. Let's finish this practice. He said, "If you go out there and bulls, Miami can beat us. He split double coverage and scored a touchdown. Two Dolphins were down on the play. I turned to Josh and said, "That's some coaching. You saw what happened. Maybe we should get every Thursday off?

Game was over from the first snap. He's going off on us like that's the reason we lost the game. That's how he was coaching. He showed it over and over again. The whole time he's rewinding the play. And he kept saying, "Fourth and inches. Colvin: Those are the situations that Bill, when it comes to motivation and humbling, to get you to understand his point, he'll go to the extreme, and that was one of those situations where it was the extreme.

Wins were no longer a weekly high; they were a relief. Most of the pure fun for the players was on Friday afternoons in practice, when Belichick would let the first-team offense go against the first-team defense, and the trash talking -- especially by Harrison, Hobbs, Vrabel, and Asante Samuel -- would fly.

Colvin: You had Asante, who was overly confident. You had Ellis, little man complex. Rodney, never backing down. And Bill would set up a lot of those incidents, calling bogus penalties to get us pissed and make us go harder, to force the offense to go harder.

Tom and I would always get into it. As a rusher, I'm always trying to anticipate his snap count. I'd come off the edge and try to pull his shorts down while he's throwing the ball. Asante Samuel never missed a chance to celebrate when he gained the upper hand on Tom Brady in practice.

What's your third-and play going to be? He'd drop an f-bomb. The other guys won. Tom didn't have a comeback. Samuel: It's a one-on-one with Moss. He runs a slant and go. I don't bite on the slant. Tom launches the ball as far as he can. I can feel Moss. I went up and got it and I slammed it in his face.

After that practice, I pulled the nameplate out of Tom's locker and put my name in there. Heath Evans fullback : Vrabel would play safety on scout team for extra conditioning. He always knew what the play was that was coming. Tommy would shake his head under center. Vrabel would jump a route. Brady couldn't stand someone being ahead of the count. Stallworth: [Before the Pittsburgh game] Anthony Smith, their safety, went off, talking about Spygate, running his mouth like he was a Hall of Famer.

Bill read it off to us. Bill says, "This is the way he feels about you guys. Trying to embarrass him. And we threw like three touchdowns over his head. And I remember Brady talking all kinds of s-- that game. I was like, this is my dude. I love this dude. I entered and said, "Looks like we're not going to dinner. Tommy said, "We're going to dinner. In Week 12, Baltimore led New England with left.

On fourth-and-one, the Ravens stopped Brady on a quarterback sneak and probably would have won the game -- but defensive coordinator Rex Ryan had panicked and called timeout before the snap, earning him a ruthless glare from Ray Lewis. Seely: We called that Rex's "Wanna get away?

Hobbs: We beat the Ravens, and you would have thought we lost.

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Right after the Week 1 victory over the Jets, Bill Belichick called a meeting to explain Spygate to the team. Many veteran players were furious. Did we do anything that anyone else hasn't done? But we never went against the rules. I don't want anyone talking about it in the media. A lot of the veterans were pissed. Tedy Bruschi was pissed. Mike Vrabel was pissed, visibly. Rodney -- he said something to the papers, because he could say whatever he wanted.

Tommy [Brady] was upset but he never showed it. Other NFL players and media were saying that they didn't earn those championships. Watson: [Belichick] asked if anyone had questions. Nobody said anything. Brady: As players, we're like, what are you talking about? We're not even privy to what goes on. Hobbs: It kind of came out, then it disappeared. It was elephant in the room but the elephant was invisible. Bill did such a good job of keeping us focused, or keeping us distracted.

One day, Bill said, "A lot of you guys have paid your debts. Your family is suffering. Parents are suffering. Bodies are suffering. Wanna know what cures it? Winning cures everything. You gotta deal with that whole situation, but as players, it was bulls None of the players knew what was going on. We played the game. We just wanted to say "F you" to everyone. Brady threw 30 touchdown passes in the first eight games, eclipsing his previous career high for an entire season.

Stallworth: There was a play that we put in before the Cowboys game. I wasn't percent on it. We weren't percent on it that week. We were 90 percent on it, but that's not good enough. I remember holding back -- should I ask Tom about it? The play wasn't designed for me; it was designed for Randy. Well, I figured, it's going to go to Randy.

So I never asked him. We're in the fourth quarter of the Dallas game. They call that play and they call it to me. Oh, s! I could tell that Tom wasn't percent, because I stopped out of the huddle and looked at him and he grabbed me. We're both like, we're not on the same page. The play was designed for me to do three different routes against three different coverages.

And so I asked him, "What do you want me to do? After that play, I came to sidelines, we looked at each other and started laughing. The team developed a reputation for running up the score. We didn't care. With Spygate, we had to over-satisfy. Brady was as pumped-up on the sideline as if it were a comeback win.

Not everybody liked New England's bloodthirsty ethic. Belichick began to take heat for running up points on teams. Hobbs: Bill just said, "Every time we step on the field, prove you're the best. There is no sportsmanship. We're going to keep putting points on the board.

Colvin: People thought Bill was giving Tom all the answers. So it was a matter of, we're not just going to stick it to you, we're going to stick it to you a little more than we usually have. We're going to prove a point, and prove it hard. Brady: When we won Super Bowls, we were a defensive football team.

Our offense was average most of the time. And it was a nice feeling. Tom Brady Sr. Week 7: Patriots 49, Dolphins 28 Stallworth: Thursday before the Dolphins, we didn't practice because a few of the guys were hurt. Bill said to us, "The most important thing is the health of our team. Bill brings us up and says, "I'm sick of this s Brady, Rodney, this is your team. I'm not looking at this anymore. I'm going in. OK, we had a bad practice. This happens. Let's finish this practice. He said, "If you go out there and bulls, Miami can beat us.

He split double coverage and scored a touchdown. Two Dolphins were down on the play. I turned to Josh and said, "That's some coaching. You saw what happened. Maybe we should get every Thursday off? Game was over from the first snap. He's going off on us like that's the reason we lost the game. That's how he was coaching. He showed it over and over again. The whole time he's rewinding the play. And he kept saying, "Fourth and inches. Colvin: Those are the situations that Bill, when it comes to motivation and humbling, to get you to understand his point, he'll go to the extreme, and that was one of those situations where it was the extreme.

Wins were no longer a weekly high; they were a relief. Most of the pure fun for the players was on Friday afternoons in practice, when Belichick would let the first-team offense go against the first-team defense, and the trash talking -- especially by Harrison, Hobbs, Vrabel, and Asante Samuel -- would fly. Colvin: You had Asante, who was overly confident. You had Ellis, little man complex. Rodney, never backing down.

And Bill would set up a lot of those incidents, calling bogus penalties to get us pissed and make us go harder, to force the offense to go harder. Tom and I would always get into it. As a rusher, I'm always trying to anticipate his snap count. I'd come off the edge and try to pull his shorts down while he's throwing the ball.

Asante Samuel never missed a chance to celebrate when he gained the upper hand on Tom Brady in practice. What's your third-and play going to be? He'd drop an f-bomb. The other guys won. Tom didn't have a comeback. Samuel: It's a one-on-one with Moss. He runs a slant and go. I don't bite on the slant. Tom launches the ball as far as he can. I can feel Moss. I went up and got it and I slammed it in his face. After that practice, I pulled the nameplate out of Tom's locker and put my name in there.

Heath Evans fullback : Vrabel would play safety on scout team for extra conditioning. He always knew what the play was that was coming. Tommy would shake his head under center. Vrabel would jump a route. Brady couldn't stand someone being ahead of the count. Stallworth: [Before the Pittsburgh game] Anthony Smith, their safety, went off, talking about Spygate, running his mouth like he was a Hall of Famer. Bill read it off to us. Bill says, "This is the way he feels about you guys.

Trying to embarrass him. And we threw like three touchdowns over his head. And I remember Brady talking all kinds of s-- that game. I was like, this is my dude. I love this dude. I entered and said, "Looks like we're not going to dinner. Tommy said, "We're going to dinner. In Week 12, Baltimore led New England with left. On fourth-and-one, the Ravens stopped Brady on a quarterback sneak and probably would have won the game -- but defensive coordinator Rex Ryan had panicked and called timeout before the snap, earning him a ruthless glare from Ray Lewis.

Seely: We called that Rex's "Wanna get away? Hobbs: We beat the Ravens, and you would have thought we lost. Bill just said, "This performance isn't going to be good enough. We were angry at Bill. We were trying to prove to him, this s is hard. Stallworth: As the games went on, fueled by Spygate and the only team to go undefeated in 16 games, guys wanted that. We never talked about it publicly. Their opinions and assessments reflect confidence, and bettors seem rather comfortable.

Expanding on that premise, we can now start to draw conclusions from certain trends, even after just four weeks. Professional bettors and oddsmakers all lean on power ratings and tweak their numbers accordingly. Philly leads the NFL in first-half scoring and time of possession, while the Cardinals rank in the bottom four of those two categories.

In terms of point differential, Philly is tops and Arizona is the league's worst. In each of the previous three seasons since Kyler Murray was drafted and became the starting QB, the Cardinals have ranked in the middle of the pack in first-half scoring. This first month could certainly be an outlier, but there's no denying that Philly now has a potent offense that is far superior to last year's.

Thus, it's fairly illogical to incorporate previous seasons. Oddsmakers determine first-half point spreads once they finalize the odds for the full game. It's essentially clockwork, and they do not set the odds in a vacuum. So if an NFL team is a 5- or 5.